Say it isn't so!

When I first heard the Yankees were considering moving Joba Chamberlain to the starting rotation, I didn't like it. When it became official, I liked it even less! The end of a dynasty! Some might say that would be too extreme or maybe too harsh. Okay, how about: "The Yanks won't make the playoffs this season, ending a 12-year run."

Sorry Yankee fans, I know you don't want to hear it, but unless they can find someone to close the gap from the 6th inning on, and get the ball to Mariano Rivera, the streak will end. Here are my top five reasons why you leave Joba Chamberlain in the pen.

1. Lights out

When Joba appeared in the 7th and/or 8th innings it was not to mop up games, it was to give the Yankees the best chance to win that night. One game at a time is how you have to think, and the best chance to win that game or any Yankee game, my friends, is by getting the ball to number 42, Mariano Rivera. Did the Yankees already forget the formula that made the core of this group of Yanks world champions four times?

Rivera to Wetteland.

Nelson to Rivera.

Next it could be Chamberlain to Rivera! What good does it do to have the best closer in baseball if you can't get to him to close the game out? Last year, the Yankees were 17-2 in games Joba pitched out of the pen. This year they were 15-5 when he came out of the pen. That's 32-7. As I write this, the team has only won 32 games on the season. I don't know about you, but I will take my chances all day long with those numbers.


2. Getting the ball to number 42

Prior to moving to the starting rotation, Joba had appeared in 20 games out of the pen this season with great success. If he were to continue at this pace, even with a pitch count in place, he could make another 45 to 50 appearances this season. That would be 65-70 appearances on the year and the wins in those games would probably be enough to put them in the playoffs.

Now before you do the math and say that still is not enough wins to put the Yankees in the playoffs, you have to figure these factors too: They are going to win some blowout games where he won't be called in to pitch. They'll win some games when he has the day off, and they'll win some games in extra innings.

I would rather have Joba in an additional 45-50 games, setting up Mo for the win, than what they are going to get out of him as a starter. What they will get (if you were wondering), is an unproven young starting pitcher who has a pitch count limit every time he goes to the mound. With the season one-third of the way over, you will be lucky if he gets 20 starts. Even if he pitches lights out for six or seven innings, who will get the ball to Mo?


3. Approaches to hitting

He will be facing hitters who have a different game plan at the plate when he's a starter as opposed to a reliever late in the game.

Most of you have played Little League or maybe have coached Little League. Some of you might have even played high school ball or higher. When your team is behind late in the game, what is your coach instructing your hitters to do?

"Take a strike -- we need base runners."

Why do you think that changes in the big leagues? It doesn't. Or at least it shouldn't. Everybody in the ballpark knows the batter is not going to swing at the first pitch in hopes of working the count to get on base. That includes the pitcher. The batter may not swing until after he has one strike, sometimes two. See where I'm going with this? When Joba comes in the game late and knows the batter is not going to swing, what an advantage. He doesn't fall behind in counts, throws first pitch strikes, then proceeds to throw a 98-mph fastball with a nasty slider -- it's lights out, boys and girls! It is not even fair!  Start playing the music, here comes The Sandman, Number 42.


4. Advantage Hitter

The game changes for the hitter when you face a pitcher at the start of the game as opposed to late in the game. Here's how it works. Each position in the batting order has a specific role. For example, the leadoff hitter is usually a guy who is asked to work the count. He'll take pitches so everyone can see what the pitcher is featuring. He rarely strikes out, and has the ability to foul off a lot of pitches.

The second hitter is a guy who can hit with two strikes. He hits with two strikes a lot because he has allowed the first hitter, now the base runner, to attempt to steal bases. Often times the base runner might steal on a pitch you would love to hit, but you let it go to allow him to steal the base and put himself in scoring position. You may have also fouled off a pitch on a hit-and-run play, or fouled off a pitch or two trying to bunt to advance the base runner. Any number of strategic maneuvers may have left the second hitter with a two-strike count.

That being said, for most hitters, your first at bat is to see what the pitcher's stuff looks like that particular game. No pitcher has the same stuff every game. You might take a pitch and hopefully see some of his off-speed pitches as well. Unless you have seen the pitcher in the past a number of times, you usually don't swing early in the count.

The second at bat is a different story. Depending on the situation, most hitters are a lot more aggressive and more comfortable. By the third or fourth at bat, you are feeling really good, having seen all that he's got.

In today's game, however, with pitchers limited to pitch counts, it's very rare to face a guy four times in the same game.


5. Joba could dominate for two more years before hitters catch up.

The fewer times the batter sees a pitcher, the more of an advantage the pitcher has. The Toronto Blue Jays went on an amazing run in the early 90s partly because they had great everyday players, but mainly because their bullpen was lights out from the 7th inning on.

Mike Timilin, Mark Eichorn, Duane Ward and Tom Henke -- they all had great stuff and could shut down a line-up.  However, what also contributed to their success was the fact that you didn't face them enough to be able to make adjustments. When you shorten the game for the starter with a great bullpen, it's tough to make adjustments to each guy.

The tricky thing about a pitcher coming in out of the bullpen is you don't always know what part of the order he might face. One game it could be the top of the order. The next time you face him, it could be the bottom of the order. It might take two or three seasons before you faced the guy enough times to feel comfortable at the plate. I mean comfortable enough to pick the ball up. Comfortable enough to anticipate what he might throw in certain counts. What's his best pitch that night? Which pitch will he use as his out pitch that night?
Joba Chamberlain throws two types of fastballs in the mid 90s, plus a slider in the mid 80's, a change-up, and a curve ball. He could go through the American League for two full season before hitters saw all his pitches enough times to make adjustments. If you don't believe me, look at Jonathan Papelbon, the Red Sox closer. Hitters are just now starting to have an occasional good swing off him, and this is his fourth season. With Joba out of the bullpen and no one to get the ball to Rivera, the Yankees have played right into the game plan of every opponent. I can hear every American League team in their hitters' meeting now: "Gentlemen, the game plan is simple. Let's get in that bullpen, boys."